A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
