Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid
It was two months ago that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be far more favourable. As the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.